Maddon is taking a lot of heat for the bases loaded intentional walk to Josh Hamilton, and to be honest, it is statistically difficult to support the move, as pointed out by several on this forum.  Chances are you’re better off pitching to Hamilton.  Maddon no doubt knew that too.  That’s why it hasn’t been done in the AL since 1901, and it took Barry Bonds to inspire the move in the NL in 1998.

 

Yet I support the thinking behind the decision.  It was a gamble, but a logical one—and I would have supported it even if it didn’t work.  The key here is to think like a manager of people, not numbers.  Let’s say that Balfour pitches to Hamilton, and he hits a grand slam (an admittedly unlikely outcome).  Obviously demoralizing, and even though the game is only tied, the momentum would have shifted—maybe for good.   Similarly, if Hamilton doubles or some other negative outcome, Balfour is pulled, and the momentum has still shifted.  Balfour is demoralized for blowing it in his role.  And if the Rays lose, everybody blames the pitching staff for failing—and right at the end of an otherwise very successful road trip. A lot of hard work down the drain.

 

What Maddon actually did was to take the responsibility for winning or losing the game on his own shoulders.  If the move works (which it did), then no harm no foul.  Maddon looks goofy, but the Rays win.  And if it doesn’t work?  Maddon is vilified in the press, and becomes the lighting rod for criticism.  Not his players.  He knows he can handle the media storm better than his players and feels comfortable with that.  But in the pennant drive, he needs to keep his untested players from folding.

 

And that, I suspect, figured greatly into what he was doing.

 

It’s the kind of move you’d only expect from someone with a career background in player development, who’s thinking a few steps ahead to get the most from his players in the long run.

 

This week we all saw two remarkable (historic?) baseball events.  I actually was in the stands for the first—the Angels no-hitting the Dodgers, but losing.  That one seemed to come from nowhere, sneak up like an October Indian summer day, a bolt of dry lightning in the backyard.  The crowd was stunned more than anything else: did that really just happen?

 

But the other event was different.  The Tampa Bay Rays, with the best record in baseball at the season’s halfway point?  After winning just 66 a year ago?  Remarkable of course, but unlike the odd events in Dodger Stadium that came from nowhere, this one has come from…well, from Somewhere.

 

It’s worthwhile assessing why, and how, and where the path leads next.

 

First off, remarkable as the Rays season has been, the main significance of it isn’t whether they actually win the division, or make the playoffs—it’s that expectations about the team have changed.  ESPN actually is taking them more seriously—reluctantly maybe—but winning forces the media’s hand.  More knowledgeable people already knew better, of course.  Other teams took notice long before the media, but somehow it all seemed like a fluke…but not anymore, not with the legitimacy of magazine covers and nationally televised games.  But most critically, the expectations about the team have changed from within.  Players who are on the club are excited, they act like a real team.  And players who aren’t on the Rays are beginning to wonder what it would be like to be part of the team.  And that really is the key to sustainability.

 

This was no bolt of lightning, but the result of a methodical plan.  And like any plan, it needs constant re-evaluation.  The key wrinkle it seems to me is that it’s happened faster than management expected.  Instead of flying under the radar for another year, the goals have changed.  Do the Rays make a big trade before the deadline?  Is it necessary?  These are not questions that management expected to have to seriously contemplate this year.  That was a 2009 “problem”, according to plan.

 

But it is indeed a problem today, the “good kind”, in the words typically found in corporate management quarterly reports.

 

What to do?

 

First, perspective:  We would be getting way in front of our skis to suggest that the Rays can be expected to win the AL East, let alone beyond that.  Not impossible of course, but an unfair expectation, and one that must be downplayed delicately from within, or risk possible implosion.  And yet, the very fact that it is conceivable just raises the stakes, and could affect player performance.  This is not just rarified air, this is outer space.  Hard to breathe in space, I’m told.

 

And so the monster that is being built in Tampa Bay is something like Frankenstein, or nuclear power—an incomplete work of genius.  It’s critical to stay with the plan, and avoid rash deviations—short-term expediencies at the expense of long-term sustainability—as the technology is being refined, and the fully operational battle station (in the prescient words of Darth Vader) is unleashed on Major League Baseball.

 

So there remains much work to be done.  But let’s assess the reasons why we are here at all.  Of course it is the players who must play the game, but let’s really put this in perspective:  this is the triumph of patient (and shrewd) planning, management, teaching, and execution.  Specifically, here are the reasons:

 

1. There Was a Plan.  On this forum, it is instructive to review BobR’s analysis since 2005.  While the crazies of the world had been calling for Maddon, Friedman, et al’s heads during downtimes, chiding Maddon in particular for Pollyannaism, it is clear now that all they have been taking the long view, and have shown remarkable cohesion in sticking with a plan in the face of withering criticism.  BobR has nailed this observation consistently for years, and he was part of a lonely minority view…which is now taking on more adherents, some reluctantly, others enthusiastically, but in any case, it all seems obvious now.  It takes remarkable patience, management teamwork, and confidence to be able to pull this off when all advice points the other way, and kudos to both Friedman and Maddon for doing this.

 

1. Change in Attitude.  This was Maddon’s mantra from Day 1, and it remains a top priority at all times.  His patience, teaching style, his ability and willingness to shield players from the glare of the media, and confidence have been crucial.  He’s the only manager out there confident enough to talk about Springsteen, wine and bicycling without worrying about his baseball image.  He’s got a perspective that positively rubs off on players, and one need not go further than comb through a roster of who he coached in the past to get but one single story: the guy is a leader.

 

1. There’s Captain on the Ship.  You can’t blame the captain of the Titanic for hitting the iceberg, but you have to blame him for not being prepared in the event it happened.  Along with the change in attitude, that is Maddon’s key contribution to the success of the team.  Now you have players singing the same tune, saying the same things in public, working toward the same goal.  Failure is tolerated—even expected—because these are teaching moments.  Leadership is everything, and a young group with a respected leader is a sustainable combination.  And if the ship hits an iceberg, you can bet there’s a contingency plan, or at least a few extra lifeboats.

 

1. Getting the Most from Players.  Nobody is having a truly breakout year, with the possible exception of Navarro.  But even Navarro’s year is the product of patience, attitude, and leadership.  The guy always had some potential, but it took some patience for this to be realized. 

 

1. Players Are Coaches Too.  The intangible effects of Percival, Floyd and Hinske cannot be overstated.  They’ve changed the equation, of course, and in effect are more properly considered an expanded coaching staff.  And they have made a young, talented team even more effective.  They will be critical down the stretch. 

 

1. Pitching and Defense.  It’s a new world when you learn to play defense, and the Rays are Exhibit #1.  As for pitching, is it really a remarkable turnaround, or more accurately the product of experience, teaching, attitude, coaching, and finding the proper roles?  For all the team’s success, Garza and Shields have been up and down, Jackson hit or miss, and no one can quite figure out why Sonnanstine has been so clutch.  And yet the proof is in the pudding.   The maturing of J. P. Howell is huge, and the congealing effect of Percival is evident everywhere.  Key consideration:  what about Jim Hickey?  Give the man credit here, and give the front office credit for staying with him after a lesser group would have canned him after the off-season drunk driving incident.

 

1. Statistics Lie.  The best indicator of all that the team is on the right track.   Where is Carlos Pena?  Where is Crawford?    Where are the .300 seasons?  The big numbers at the plate?  If you went purely on stats, you’d panic.  But their leadership and contributions are there, and critical in the making of players like Upton and Longoria.  It is a team game, and the only statistic that matters in the end is the one in the Win column.  That’s a message that is clearly taught, and understood, by these players.

 

There are other reasons of course, luck being one of them.  But the overall theme here is that it’s been mostly the triumph of a Plan, not the sum of individual efforts.

 

The mid-season report card has to be an A+, particularly on the part of Maddon and Friedman.  But it’s the players who have shown the mettle to compete, and the ability to execute. Remarkable efforts all around.

 

Now comes the hard part:  THE SECOND HALF.  This should be exciting, but another story to be told another day.  Hopefully in October…

 

 

 

Although I live in California, I had the rare chance to be in Durham this weekend, thanks to a side trip from visiting my brother who lives in Greenville, NC.  Today the Bulls beat Scranton 2-0, in a multi-pitcher 2-hit shutout.  On its face, that sounds great.  But it wasn't all rosy...still, positive overall.

Admittedly just an outsider's snapshot, but here's what I saw.

First the positives:

1.  The Experience.  Durham has an outstanding park, and watching a game here is a real treat.  I'd never been there before, and it reminds me a lot of a smaller Camden Yards, with a brickyard feel adjacent to old industry, in this case, the tobacco industry.  The Lucky Strike smokestack loomed over the field, with an artificial water feature below.  (I loved the irony of the No Smoking signs near the restaurants, just under the big smokestack.)  The park itself is really among the better game experiences I've had; in California, only Raley Field in Sacramento is comparable at the minor league level.  If you haven't been to Durham, you've got to go.

2.  Team Patience at the Plate.  The Bulls worked several 3-ball counts, and drew quite a few walks.  Signs of decent coaching.

3.  John Rodriguez.  The Bulls only managed 6 hits, but the most impressive of these was by Rodriguez.  He showed particular poise on an 0-2 count, poking a tough slider of the plate the other way into left--most impressive moment of the game.  Even when he stuck out looking later on a close pitch, he looked like he had his head in the game doing it.  Sounds odd, but he gave that impression.  He looks like he has a plan at the plate.

4.  Gimenez' Defense.  Solid behind the plate, seemed to call a good game, arm accurate and strong--threw out 2 base runners.

5.  Pitching Toughness.  Several Bulls pitchers had to work out of jams, and showed
 poise under pressure.

6.  Wool-E-Bull.  Gotta love the bull.

Now the downsides:

1.  Joel Guzman. Guzman looked lost out there, both offensively and defensively  In the field, he fumbled but recovered on a couple routine grounders.  He also had a judgment lapse--opting to tag a runner coming into third when it was an easy force out.  At the plate, he tended to flail an/or guess wrong--like he doesn't have a clear plan what to do.  Just the opposite of Rodriguez.

2.  Jon Weber.  He's overmatched by a half decent fastball, and can't adjust to offspeed stuff.

3.  Kevin Lynn.  No control, walked several, and many 3-ball counts ended his game early.  The upside--he only gave up one hit.

4.  Grant Balfour.  Pitched well-enough, but made a pretty bone-head balk that my 5-year-old nephew in the stands was able to call.  Made up for it with a strong save.

Overall, the team seemed to show good patience at the plate, was aggressive on the basepaths (2 steals, 2 bang-bang plays at the plate), and showed poise under pressure in the field.  I don't think Guzman has a future.  I'm impressed with Rodriguez's approach to the game.  And, without a doubt, this is one of your better ballpark experiences, whether Major or Minor League...